Hittin' the brakes
Population growth in Nova Scotia slows again
It might not be too surprising to readers, but I think population growth is the most interesting and important data point right now. It should be surprising since most of the time, population growth is useful because of it’s stability and predictability.
But clearly - we aren’t in that environment right now. After a steady acceleration from stagnation starting in 2015, Nova Scotia’s population growth peaked at 3.2% year over year in Q2 of 2023. The annual growth growth has slowed now for 5 consecutive quarters - to 1.9% as of July 1st, 2024.
A data aside. Some stats are often reported as a quarter over quarter change (or month over month). Almost always, this is a waste of time for most people, and you’re better off just looking at year over year changes - it’ll be easier to see the trend. For example, look at the volatility of quarterly changes in U.S. GDP below. If you are a professional stock trader, you need to try to get the most information out of the light blue line, but for everyone else, the orange line paints a much clearer picture of the economic situation.
But in this case there is some value in looking at quarterly changes in population growth, because the situation is changing rapidly, and population growth is seasonal. In terms of Q3 growth rates, the latest change is slower than 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2019. It’s also worth showing that in the boom years of 2023 and 2022, Q3 was the highest growth rate quarter - with annualized growth rates of 4.2% and 3.6%, vs. 1.8% in 2024.
The weak Q3 release suggests to me that the year over year growth rate could trend even lower. And it likely will be lower, as the federal government is moving to limit non-permanent resident (NPRs) numbers. There are currently only 56,000 NPRs in Nova Scotia, about 5% of the total population, but it’s been growing so rapidly that it has affected the headline population growth rate.
As universities (especially CBU) admit fewer international students and fewer temporary foreign worker permits get issued, it’s likely that the NPR growth rate turns at least slightly negative.
If the NPR number just stays flat next quarter, and nothing else changed, year over year population growth would slow from 1.9% to 1.3%. Of course, NPR flows aren’t the only driver, there is also net international immigration and net interprovincial flows. Interprovincial migration is quite volatile and unpredictable. Maybe Ontarians will keep going pushed out given their housing crisis, or maybe the lack of home sales will prevent Ontarians from buying homes in Nova Scotia. It’s hard to tell, and not nearly as directly influenced by policy as NPR flows.
It’s a wild ride - we’ll see what happens next quarter.