Halifax Hits Half a Million

Big milestones merit big fun

It went a bit under the radar, but Halifax (HRM) is officially past the half million mark. In the year through July 1, 2024, Halifax grew 2.4%, reaching a population of 502,753. The growth is a good notch lower than the past two years of 3.5% to 4% growth, but still represents very strong population growth.

For a region not accustomed to growth, though increasingly familiar with the “problems of growth”, we ought to talk more about the benefits of growth. Having major cities is good. For everyone. But major cities should demonstrate that, not just talk it.

I think Halifax does a decent job of attracting concerts and shows, but there’s one thing that would mark Halifax’s arrival as a major city. I think that’s an NHL team.

At first glance, it doesn’t seem likely. The newest NHL team, the Seattle Kraken, are in a city of 3.5 million. A city that is home to some of the worlds biggest corporations ($$$). But Canadian cities punch above their weight in hockey fandom. A 2012 study from the Mowat Centre at U of T estimated that Canada could support 12 NHL teams, like a second team in the biggest cities, a team in Hamilton, and some smaller markets as well like Kitchener, Halifax and Saskatoon.

Historically speak, Halifax is approaching the range where other Canadian cities have gotten NHL teams.

Population figures drawn from ChatGPT, so there may be errors and inevitable classification differences (what counts as the city limits)

As the Mowat study highlights, one of Canada’s biggest advantage in the financial side of the NHL is putting butts in seats. Games sell out more often, and at higher ticket prices. The nice part of adding Halifax to the NHL is that - unlike adding a second team in Toronto, or Hamilton - cannibalization of ticket sales for existing teams would be near zero.

Halifax scored pretty poorly in the original study, but over a decade has passed. Population growth is on a much firmer trajectory. Growth has arrived not just in Halifax, but the entire Maritimes.

From the Mowat study:

Clearly a weakness might still exist in Corporate Strength. I saw this week that Premier Houston is considering allowing more resource development. Maybe that could help. Resource companies, like banks & telecoms (see every Scotiabank arena everywhere), want to make sure people see all the nice stuff they support.

Finally there’s the arena, but I’ll let you all debate that for the next decade.